The research.
Hard Shiver Research publishes open-access institutional papers on the story IP economy, the adaptation premium, the author equity problem, the Cellar patron-funded model, and the quarterly state of the field. We publish what we learn so the publishing field can reason from the same numbers we do.
The Story IP Economy.
A survivorship-adjusted study of book → IP value capture across 1,847 published titles from 2014 to 2025. Of titles that earned out their advance, only 18% captured meaningful IP value beyond the book. Five characteristics distinguish the high-IP-capture cohort. We propose the Hard Shiver story-IP framework — the analytical basis for our editorial practice — and publish the full dataset.
Four companion papers.
Each is short, peer-reviewed by the Hard Shiver editorial board, built around a single empirical question the flagship raises. Together they form the analytical basis for the publishing house.
The Adaptation Premium.
The first survivorship-adjusted study of book → screen value capture. We tracked 412 books optioned 2014–2020 through 2025 and find that only 31% of optioned books reached production, but those that did captured 6.4× the lifetime IP value of comparable un-optioned books. We isolate the four characteristics that distinguish the 31% — and propose the optioning protocols the house uses.
"Of 412 optioned books 2014–2020, 31% reached production by 2025. Four characteristics — high-concept hook, visualizability, mid-length manuscript, author-on-room availability — explain 73% of variance in option-to-production conversion…"
Read PDFThe Author Equity Problem.
The unit economics of traditional publishing for the author. We model author lifetime earnings across 312 mid-tier traditionally-published titles and find that the median author captures ~$26,000 over the life of the book, against publisher gross of $187,000. We propose the IP-equity model used by Hard Shiver and show the comparison under a range of outcomes.
"Median author lifetime earnings on a mid-tier traditional title (n=312, 2010–2020): $26,400 against publisher gross of $187,000. The 14:1 ratio is structural and survives every robustness check we ran. The IP-equity model reduces the ratio to 3.2:1 at base case…"
Read PDFThe Cellar Model.
The patron-funded publishing model documented. 2,418 active patrons funded six titles in 2024–25, paid out $1.4M in patron revenue, and recovered the advances on three of those six through Cellar revenue alone — the first time reader patronage has paid for an advance without publisher capital, by our research. We publish the unit economics and propose the model as a template for serious independent publishing.
"The Cellar (founded Sept 2023) reached 2,418 active patrons by Q4 2025. Annual retention: 96%. Advance recovery via patron revenue alone: 3 of 6 funded titles. We publish full unit economics under CC BY 4.0…"
Read PDFThe Q3 2026 brief.
The summer 2026 picture for the story-IP economy. Audio share continues to rise; mid-budget screen adaptation is the strongest band; the AI-narration question stabilizes; the major-house consolidation continues. Six structural shifts to watch over the next four quarters.
"Audio share of trade book revenue reached 33% in Q2 2026 (up from 31% Q4 2025). The premium short-form segment crossed $510M annualized — up 41% YoY. Limited-TV options at the mid-budget tier continue to outperform feature options at 3.2× the conversion rate…"
Read PDFBuilt on eleven years of published-book outcome data.
Every paper in Hard Shiver Research uses the same underlying dataset — the Hard Shiver editorial archive spans 1,847 published-book outcomes (every Hard Shiver title plus a benchmark set from peer publishers), 412 optioned-book histories tracked through screen production or expiration, and the Cellar membership data going back to founding. The methodology is published. The dataset is downloadable. The conclusions are open to dispute.
Use it. All Hard Shiver Research is CC BY 4.0. Reprint it, adapt it, build on it. If our work helps another publisher think more rigorously about the IP economy or the author-equity question, the field benefits.